England and Wales is facing a major shortfall in the delivery of new homes over the next four years due to a lack of readily available sites, according to a new report published by planning consultancy Turley.

The Turley Housing Updates report examines the published five year housing requirement and land supply position of the 318 Local Planning Authorities (LPAs) in England and Wales, excluding London, between April 2013 and April 2018.

It shows that according to approved plans, England and Wales will require at a minimum 1,197,000 new homes over the next four years. The report also reveals that LPAs claim to have land available for around 939,000 of these homes, leaving a substantial shortfall of at least 258,000 homes.

‘Local authorities are required under the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) to identify and update annually a supply of specific deliverable sites sufficient to provide five years’ worth of housing against their objectively assessed housing requirements. Our research and report shows that at least 211 of England And Wales’ 318 planning authorities fall short of their five year land supply targets,’ said John Acres, director, Turley.

The shortfall in the South West is 18,636, in the South /east 34,502, in the East 23,106, in the East Midlands 56,250, in the West Midlands 27,037, in the North West 45,340, in the North East 13,437, in Yorkshire and Humberside 27,900 and in Wales 11,765.

‘The majority of LPAs are falling short of their minimum five year housing land supply requirements, and this has significant implications for the pace of economic recovery. It is also likely to impact affordability for first time buyers wishing to enter the market,’ explained Acres.

‘The need for housing remains high and is growing yet many LPAs still do not have adopted up to date NPPF compliant Local Plans. This leaves planning policy in a state of flux and uncertainty that will further delay the delivery of much needed homes across England and Wales,’ he pointed out.

‘Those LPAs that do not have up to date adopted Local Plans will continue to receive planning applications but will need to judge them within the context of the NPPF and its presumption in favour of sustainable development,’ he added.
The Turley Housing Updates provides a snapshot of housing need and supply between April 2013 and April 2018 and is based on housing land supply data provided by the LPAs themselves.

Acres explained that the research represents a ‘best case’ scenario so in the absence of adopted Local Plans and as developers bring forward new sites and permissions for new sites are granted, there will be minor changes to these figures.

‘The substantial shortfall is, however, only likely to deteriorate as annual dwelling delivery rates remain below those needed to meet the overall requirements across England and Wales,’ he concluded.

Momentum in the Scottish commercial property market from 2013 has continued into the first quarter of 2014 with further improvements in investment performance, according to a new report.

The all property total return for the first quarter of the year was 2.8%, down slightly on the 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2013 but this brings the annual total return through to the end of March to 10%, which is well ahead of the 0.2% at the same time in 2013.

This level of performance is consistent with wider signs of economic and occupier recovery that has been observed in Scottish commercial property since spring in 2013, says the report from property consultants CBRE.

However, relative to the UK as a whole, Scottish property continues to underperform, although the gap is beginning to close, particularly within the retail and industrial markets.

The report says that Scottish retail is currently the closest to UK rates of return, with an annual total return to the end of March of 8.6%, compared to a UK wide return of 10%.

Across all sectors Estimated Rental Value (ERV) growth remained weak in the first three months of the year. The already slow rates of growth that emerged over the second half of 2013 have fallen back during the first quarter of 2014.

As a result the all property capital growth rate of 1.2% was exclusively driven by inward yield movement, caused by the weight of money seeking opportunities in the Scottish commercial property market. Nevertheless, the report points out that this pace of growth marks the third successive quarter of rising capital values, which will be only boosted further once more substantive rental growth begins to emerge.

On a quarterly basis, retail performance edged down a little in the first quarter to post a total return of 2.3%, down from 2.8% in the fourth quarter. Capital growth for retail was the weakest of the three main sectors, with values up just 0.8% since the start of the year. A lack of any rental growth over the last six months, and more modest yield contraction, have contributed to this underperformance.

Whilst all sectors have seen lower total returns in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter, offices have been the most stable. The total return in the first quarter was 3.3%, down from 3.6% in the fourth quarter. As with retail, this performance has been driven by yield contraction alone.

Scottish industrials were once again the strongest performing sector in the first quarter, delivering a quarterly total return of 3.9%, although down from 4.7% in the previous quarter. Compared to both offices and retail, industrial benefited from 0.3% of rental value growth during the quarter, which assisted in pushing capital values up by 2.2%.

‘Little has changed in the relative performance between cities in Scotland, with Aberdeen offices and industrials continuing to show the greatest performance,’ said Aileen Knox, senior director from CBRE.

‘The office market in Aberdeen is the top…

Development land prices have started to gain momentum across England, following the trend in prime central London, according to a new report.

English land values rose by 7.3% in the year to the end of the first quarter of 2014, according to Knight Frank’s Development Land index, and developers are expecting further increases in the year to come.

More than nine in 10 respondents said they expect greenfield land prices to rise over the next year. Around a third said they expected increases of between 5% and 10%, while a further 29% said they expected a larger increase of up to 15%. The majority of respondents expect urban land prices to rise by 10% to 15%.

The sourcing and use of land for development remains a key factor in the sector, and it has now become a hot topic of political debate. The report suggests that house builders must ensure they have a flow of sites coming through with planning permission at the right time to enable them to build homes in line with their strategy.

‘The expected rise in activity in the next 12 months is certainly supported by our survey, which shows that 74% of respondents expect to increase their pipeline of land with planning, while 69% expect to increase their strategic land holdings,’ the report says.

But there is increasing debate about land banks, whether house builders are keeping land and not building it out in order simply to make a profit on re-selling it.

The Homebuilders’ Federation have questioned whether the idea of hoarding land is as big a feature in the market as commonly believed. It highlights that for the large house builders, only 4% of sites are waiting for work to start.

‘This goes to the heart of the question of whether strategic land, on which a house builder has agreed an option with the landowner, which may or may not lead to them gaining planning or buying the land, or which may be bought and have started the long process of going through planning, should be classed as a land bank,’ the report adds.

The survey showed that improving access to public sector land was the factor highlighted by house builders and developers as the biggest additional positive step the government could take to improve housing delivery.

Whitehall has already released 430 brownfield sites from central government departments, with the capacity to build 68,000 homes, meaning that the government is likely to meet its target of releasing enough land for 100,000 homes by 2015.

But Kris Hopkins, the Housing Minister, has called for even more public land to be released, especially at a local level.
The Strategic Land Review (SLR), published at this year’s budget, has identified some £5 billion of land and property that can be sold. There will be more detail given on how this will happen in this years’ Autumn Statement.

The report points out that the move to encourage local councils to release plots for self builders should…

The housing shortage in London is reaching critical levels as house building fails to keep pace with population growth and wages lag behind housing costs, according to a new report.

Less than half of the homes needed just to house new households are currently being built, with 52,500 new households expected to form each year up to 2021 but only 18,310 new homes built during 2012/2013, says the report from the National Housing Federation.

The shortage is making housing increasingly unaffordable. The average house price in the capital is 16 times the average wage and is set to rise another 43% by 2020, the biggest jump in the country.

Suburban areas such as Brent have not escaped affordability problems, with house prices hitting nearly 17 times the average salary of £23,280. The annual income needed for the average mortgage in Brent is £90,169, the report points out.
More than 80% of businesses surveyed across the country said a lack of affordable housing is stalling economic growth, with 75% warning it would affect their ability to attract and keep workers.

The report also shows that the average house price in the capital in 2012 was £438,636, some 87% higher than the average for 2002 and the average London rent is £1,400 a month with private rents expected to rise by 32% by 2020.

‘England appears to be moving towards economic recovery, driven significantly by London’s dynamism and the city’s prominence as a global financial centre. But as the capital thrives, the result for ordinary Londoners is an overheated housing market with people struggling to buy or rent a home of their own,’ said Dave Smith, London external affairs manager for the National Housing Federation.

‘Rising housing costs are bad news for Londoners and bad news for businesses. Young people and families are struggling to afford a home in the capital and are being pushed out, away from jobs and schools. London can’t continue to be a hub for talent and enterprise if people can’t afford to live here. To retain our competitive edge on the international stage, we need housing that is affordable for people on a range of incomes,’ he explained.

‘If things don’t change, London’s much needed economic growth could be stifled and businesses could struggle. Building more homes could be the crucial difference between a thriving world city and a capital in decline. The Mayor, the Government and the London Enterprise Panel must work with housing associations and other partners to revitalise the struggling housing market, bringing with it the jobs and infrastructure that will cement our economic recovery,’ he added.

Property price growth in Istanbul was more than twice the rate of growth in April compared with a year ago, according to the latest figures to be published.

In the first two months of the year prices in the Turkish capital appeared to be rising at a more moderate pace than in 2013. Then in April they by more than 1% in a month, according to the data from Gyoder.

Adil Yaman, investment director of real estate agency Universal 21 believes that the property market is set to grow faster than ever this year as demand from foreign investors and locals remains strong in most areas of the city.

‘We would normally expect fluctuations in growth in the early part of the year, which are traditionally times when the market takes a breather,’ added Yaman.

Universal 21 analysts pointed out that the buying season normally reaches a peak in August with strong growth also seen in June and July. In August 2013 for example property prices in Istanbul increased by more than 2% in a month, which would add £1,000 to the price of a £50,000 apartment in the city.

According to statistics released earlier in the year, Istanbul saw the highest annual increase in property prices at up to 18.59% compared to Antalya at 5.85 in the same period.

Monica Anca, director of Universal 21, said that Istanbul is an engine for property growth in Turkey, much as London is in the United Kingdom.

‘The city has seen huge investment in its infrastructure, which hasn’t always been popular with locals but the pace of change in the city is rapid and the population is rising with it. So it comes as no surprise that this puts pressure on existing housing stock,’ she explained.

‘The health of the property market is important to Turkey’s economy as it is in other countries because it provides jobs in construction and helps provide a platform for growth in other areas of the national economy,’ she added.

‘Along with the recent announcement of a third airport in the city which will provide a boost to suburban areas like Beylikduzu, I think all the signs are positive for another year of strong growth,’ she concluded.

The UK government’s Help to Buy scheme which is credited with helping more first time buyers onto the property ladder, is most popular with people aged 20 to 29 years, new research shows.

A survey of estate agents across the country confirms that first time buyers are the main adopters of the scheme, using the government backed initiative to secure a mortgage, with 86% of estate agents noticing this trend.

Second steppers came in second place, making up nearly 18% per cent of the Help to Buy market, the survey Move with Us, one of the UK’s largest network of independent of estate agents, also shows.

Further results show that 78% of people using Help to Buy are young couples, 10.5% are single and 9% are families, 7% have used the government incentive to upsize and just 3% have used it to downsize in the last six months.

Looking at the regional breakdown, the government scheme has been a lifeline for many young aspiring home owners in areas where house prices can be prohibitive for many.

For example, in Greater London where the average asking price has risen 18.94% in a year to reach £438,118, some 93% of people using the Help to Buy scheme are typically aged 20 to 29.

In the North East this figure is lower with 85% adopting the scheme where property prices are an average of £153,413 having only risen 0.70% in the last 12 months.

Considering all their buyers and not just those using the Help to Buy scheme, estate agents noted that 52% of their buyers are aged between 30 and 39, some 25% are 40 to 49, 16% are aged between 20 and 29 and 3% of home movers are over 60.
‘The Help to Buy scheme has been at the centre of many debates. Despite clearly helping some aspiring home owners to get a foot on the property ladder, it has come under criticism for potentially creating another housing bubble and not tackling the housing shortage,’ said Robin King, director at Move with Us.

‘A blanket approach to solving the housing crisis in Britain won’t work because there are very different markets in play. Greater London and the North East are polar opposites. Help to Buy should only be available in regions that need stimulating, such as the North East, otherwise it will create a housing bubble. If it were only accessible in markets where there is enough housing stock to keep pace with demand, prices wouldn’t be artificially inflated and affordability reduced, the very thing Help to Buy was introduced to combat,’ he explained.

‘The focus should be on creating more affordable housing and looking at introducing schemes and solutions aimed at injecting more money into the supply chain so there are enough bricks, mortar and quality tradesmen available. Tacking the supply shortage is the best way to create a sustainable solution to this widespread housing problem,’ he added.

House prices in the UK increased by 3.9% in May, the third monthly increase since the beginning of the year, according to the latest index from leading property lender the Halifax.

It is a sign that the growth in the market does not seem to be softening as some commentators have suggested and an examination of the quarterly figures seems to bear this out. Monthly movements, however, can be volatile and the quarter on quarter change is a more reliable indicator of the underlying trend.

House prices in the latest three months from March 2014 to May 2014 were 2% higher than in the preceding three months of December 2013 to February 2014. House price change on this measure has now remained steady in a narrow range of 1.9% to 2.3% since June 2013.

Prices in the three months to May were 8.7% higher than in the same three months a year earlier. This was marginally higher than in April when it was 8.5%.

The index report points out that home sales edged down by 1% in April to 103,690, however, transactions are still a third higher than in April 2013. Annually, transactions grew to 1.142 million in the year to March 2014 a rise of 23% from the same period a year earlier according to seasonally adjusted figures from HMRC.

The Halifax says that the growing difference between housing demand and supply continues to be a key driver of house price increases. Growth in new buyer enquiries have remained steady so far this year while the number of home owners providing instructions to put their property on the market for sale declined for the fourth consecutive month.

However, latest house building figures show signs of improvement which could help to bring demand and supply into better balance. The number of private housing starts in England in the year to March 2014 increased by 34% to 108,400 from a year earlier, according to the Department of Communities and Local Government.

‘On an annual basis housing demand is still strong and continues to be supported by a strengthening economic recovery. Consumer confidence is being boosted by a rapidly improving labour market and low interest rates, although growth in average earnings still remains weak,’ said Stephen Noakes, Halifax mortgages director.

‘However, there are signs of a revival in house building which should bring supply and demand into better balance and curb upwards pressure on prices over the medium and longer term,’ he added.

Home price growth in the United States has softened for a fifth consecutive month with values predicted to normalise in the 5% range by the end of this year.

According to the latest monthly report from real estate data provider Clear Capital, although expectations were high heading into spring, it’s been a decidedly underwhelming season. According to the report good deals do exist, but you need to work harder to find them. Savvy investors with deeper market insight into current market dynamics will be rewarded, the report says.

However, despite a lethargic spring buying season, annual price growth in the 50 major metro markets stands at 22.3% although there is some considerable variation depending on location. Price growth has varied from a fall of 37% to growth of 45%.

There are even large local market variances. For example, in Cleveland the top performing ZIP code area has seen annual growth of 42.3% and the lowest was a fall of 23.3%. But in Rochester, New York, the spread is much narrow with just 4.4% difference between top and bottom.

‘It’s no surprise that the spring buying season isn’t moving the needle this year. The rising price floor in the low tier sector of the market has squeezed investor returns, thereby removing a key demand segment. We don’t expect to see a large pop in prices through the summer buying season. It’s likely we’ll keep chugging along at our current pace, somewhere around 1% quarterly gains for the rest of the year,’ said Dr. Alex Villacorta, vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital.

‘Considering the number of key housing fundamentals that remain stressed, like millions of borrowers still underwater, high levels of student debt, potential borrowers with less than perfect credit, and a job market that is still recovering, we don’t expect a market with waning investor demand to withstand any eye-popping rates of growth. Although it’s not a quick fix to the larger housing problem, home price moderation is really a healthy move for the market overall,’ he explained.

‘While some might be discouraged by a weak spring buying season, we are encouraged that price trends are finally calibrating back to pre-bubble norms. Despite other headwinds, moderating home prices will serve as the foundation to a more balanced market moving forward,’ he said.

‘Remember, we’re still in recovery mode which means deals exist. Market participants just need to look deeper. As softer gains continue to unfold, broad stroke investment approaches will prove less and less fruitful. As such, market participants who pin point investments will be better positioned for success,’ he added.

Retired home owners in the UK now own property worth £807 billion with their total property wealth increasing by more than £6.3 billion in the past three months, the equivalent of around £1,340 each.

New research from over 55s financial specialist Key Retirement Solutions says that their total property wealth is now at its highest level since the firm started monitoring the housing wealth of the over 65s in March 2010.

Its Pensioner Property Equity Index shows over-65 homeowners now own property wealth of £807.249 billion outright as house prices across most of the UK rose and the growth in property prices is helping to drive the equity release market which enables home owners to release money from their houses.

Key Retirement Solutions figures show £339.8 million was released in the first three months of this year with the average customer taking more than £61,230 from their home.

Retired home owners in London were the biggest winners gaining nearly £10,700 on average each in the past three months while retired homeowners in Eastern England are more than £4,290 better off and pensioners in the South West are £2,283 better off.

But there were sharp falls in some areas. Over 65 home owners in Wales saw their average property wealth fall by nearly £5,000 in the three months while Scottish pensioners lost nearly £3,900. Retired homeowners in the North West lost £966.

The figures also show more than 36.7% of pensioner property equity is owned by over 65s in London and the South East. In London over 65s own property without any mortgages worth £151.7 billion while in the South East pensioners own £145 billion of property outright. More than 70% of pensioner property wealth is concentrated in London, the South East, the South West, the East of England and the North West.

‘Pensioner property wealth is at a new record high of £807 billion as the housing market continues to grow, and average gains of more than £1,346 in just three months highlights that property wealth should be a major part of retirement income planning,’ said Dean Mirfin, group director at Key Retirement Solutions.

‘Even home owners in areas where prices have fallen still have considerable property wealth considering they own their homes outright and will have seen strong gains,’ he added.

The sales market in prime central London is active for properties priced correctly but overall sales are down 17% year on year, a new report shows.

The latest monthly report from residential sales and lettings firm W.A. Ellis says that realistic pricing is key and it is the family house market that is the most buoyant but supply outweighs demand in various areas of the market.

Although there has been much talk of a housing bubble, a more cautious story is emerging in the prime central London property market, according to Richard Barber, partner with the firm.

‘It is the rate of transaction which is of most concern and a strong barometer of confidence within the upper end of the London market. In May 2013 some 932 properties in total were sold throughout London. However, this May, there have only been 774 sales, almost a 17% reduction in transaction levels year on year,’ he pointed out.

‘It is also interesting to note that 25% of the house stock currently available on the market has been reduced in price, indicating an initial optimism now countered with a distinct sense of realism, as the window of opportunity within the Spring/Summer market begins to narrow,’ he said.

He also pointed out that year on year the average rate per square foot achieved on houses is 1% down from the £1,876 per square foot that was being achieved in the first quarter of 2013. In the first quarter of this year it was £1,858 per square foot.

‘That said, we are enjoying an active spring market with correctly priced property selling well but the froth has undoubtedly come off. We believe that this is partly due to the government’s tax on ‘enveloped dwellings’ (those held in company names) and the increase in SDLT. Looking ahead, realistic pricing is key if one wishes to effect a sale within the next six weeks before the traditional summer slow down,’ explained Barber.

The lettings market is sporadic with supply now outweighing demand in various areas of the market, according to Lucy Morton, senior partner and head of lettings at W.A. Ellis. There has, however, been increased activity in the sub £1,000 per week one to two bedroom price range, and she is also seeing a very buoyant family houses market.

‘We have seen a 12% increase in the letting of family houses since January 2014 compared with the same period in 2013, and as families are keen to settle before the start of the new school year, we cannot see this waning,’ she explained.

‘We have recently launched four substantial family houses in Kensington and Chelsea, and are already receiving a healthy number of enquiries from families who are beginning to come to London to get settled this summer. A five bedroom house we launched on Brompton Square has already gone under offer at a rent above the outgoing rent with no void, and on the same day, a tenant gave notice on a fantastic five…

The majority of landlords in the UK considering future property purchases plan to buy in their local area, according to the latest research from the National Landlords Association (NLA).

Three quarters of private residential landlords say their next property purchase will be close to home or in or around the area that they currently live.

The research also shows that just 10% plan to purchase within a 100 miles radius and 9% say they plan to buy further afield.

The news comes as more and more councils across the country are turning to costly and ineffective landlord licensing schemes which could have a detrimental effect on local investment.

‘Local investment in housing is essential if towns and cities across the UK want to attract people and business to the area. The private rented sector (PRS) is growing at a steady rate but we still need further investment in housing if tenant demand across the UK is to be met,’ said Carolyn Uphill, NLA chairman.

‘These findings are positive news and show that landlords can provide a vital lifeline for local councils who struggle with the ever growing demand for housing in their area. It means that councils considering introducing licensing schemes should take these findings on board as otherwise they will alienate a significant proportion of landlords and in doing so deter much needed investment,’ she added.

The NLA has also compiled a list of key considerations for first time landlords looking to a new and successful local property investment, which is part of its Professional Practice for Profit campaign.

It suggests they should find out about local tenant demand and what types of tenants are most attracted to the area as well as local employment conditions.

They should research local market rent levels like and what rental yields can be expected and work out how desirable the property will be in terms of proximity to transport connections, schools and local amenities.

They should also look at the likely capital value potential and whether there are any future development plans in the area and what are local crime levels are like.

The typical time on the market for a property in England and Wales is now 90 days, the shortest it has been since April 2008, according to new figures from Home.co.uk.

However, the firm points out that 90 days is simply the median figure across both overheating and cooler regional markets and there is considerable variation depending on location.

At one extreme, Greater London has a low marketing time of 48 days, which is equivalent to the on market time observed in the previous boom. The South East is also a fast market showing boom time length marketing times as supply slows to a mere trickle and properties get snapped up by eager buyers spurred on by the Help to Buy scheme.

By contrast, the North East and Wales show a typical on market time of 167 and 166 days respectively. These and similar slow regional markets are burdened by a backlog of properties that have been on the market a long time, in many cases more than a year, it says. Vendors there are simply waiting for the market to pick up and the North, Wales and Scotland are seeing ample supply relative to demand hindering the property market recovery despite the Help to Buy scheme and low interest rates.

‘The UK property market remains highly diverse in respect of marketing times. London seems a world away from the difficult and slow markets in the North. The sub-inflation price rises observed in Yorkshire, the North West, Scotland, Wales and the North East correlate well with the long marketing times shown above and indicates that, contrary to the rest of the country, supply is broadly in balance with demand in these regions,’ said Doug Shephard, director of Home.co.uk.

‘However, market conditions are currently improving rapidly in the North, Scotland and Wales. Hence, we may soon be able to add some, if not all, to the list of booming regional markets over the next 12 months. Goodness knows how the London and South East markets will look by then,’ he added.

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